Maersk reported on Nov. 5 that average spot freight rates, measured by the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index, were 46% higher in Q3 2026 than in Q2.
There are two 46% figures in Maersk’s report. The SCFI spot-rate move was quarter over quarter. Maersk’s average loaded freight rate rose 46% year over year to USD 3,287 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FFE), and 20% compared with Q2 2026.
The SCFI, published by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, reflects spot rates for Shanghai export container transport. That makes it a useful indicator of short-term market pressure, but it is not the same as every contract rate paid by shippers.
Rates did the work volumes did not
Maersk’s Q3 revenue rose 27% year over year to USD 18.1 billion. EBITDA increased to USD 4.7 billion from USD 2.7 billion a year earlier, while EBIT rose to USD 3.3 billion from USD 1.3 billion.
The Ocean business accounted for most of the change. Ocean revenue climbed 37% to USD 12.6 billion, and Ocean EBIT increased to USD 2.6 billion from USD 567 million. Loaded volumes, however, slipped 0.8% year over year to 3.37 million FFE.
Maersk’s sensitivity table shows why that rate move matters. All else being equal, a USD 100 per FFE change in container freight rates would affect full-year 2026 EBIT by about USD 0.3 billion. A 100,000 FFE change in container freight volume would affect EBIT by about USD 0.02 billion.
Volume still matters, but the quarter shows how quickly pricing can dominate earnings when capacity tightens faster than demand moves.
Congestion was the constraint
Maersk said global container demand grew between 2% and 4% year over year in Q3, while the nominal fleet was 5.1% larger than a year earlier at the end of the quarter. The rate pressure came from usable capacity being absorbed by disruption, not from fleet scarcity alone.
Severe typhoons in Asia caused substantial port congestion. Maersk said global average port waiting times peaked at 16.6 hours on Aug. 25, the highest since January 2023 and above the 9.6-hour average in the first half of 2026.
The company also cited the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, widespread network congestion and weather conditions in East Asia as factors that raised bunker, network and container handling costs and weakened schedule reliability.
Costs climbed alongside rates
Higher rates did not fall straight to profit. In Ocean, total operating costs rose 18% year over year to USD 8.7 billion. Bunker costs increased 37% to USD 2.1 billion, while the average bunker price rose 49% to USD 798 per fuel-oil-equivalent tonne.
Network costs excluding bunker rose 12%, and container handling costs increased 9.3%. Maersk linked those increases to the Strait of Hormuz contingencies and terminal congestion.
Even with higher costs, Maersk raised its full-year 2026 guidance to underlying EBITDA of USD 14.0 billion to USD 14.5 billion and underlying EBIT of USD 8.0 billion to USD 8.5 billion. The previous ranges were USD 10.5 billion to USD 12.5 billion for EBITDA and USD 4.5 billion to USD 6.5 billion for EBIT.
The market reaction was more cautious
Reuters reported that Maersk shares fell 11% on Nov. 5, even after the guidance increase, as analysts said the upgrade had been expected and third-quarter EBITDA came in below an LSEG mean forecast. Reuters also reported that analysts pointed to weaker-than-expected volumes and higher Ocean costs.
The next pressure points
For retailers, e-commerce sellers, hardware firms and manufacturers that depend on container shipping, higher spot rates can raise landed costs. Schedule reliability can matter just as much when products, components or inventory restocking depend on fixed launch windows.
The next useful indicators are whether SCFI spot rates stay elevated, whether Asian port congestion continues to ease, and whether route changes reduce voyage times. Maersk’s latest guidance assumes global container market volume growth of around 4% for full-year 2026, but the company also warned that macroeconomic conditions, bunker fuel prices and freight rates remain uncertain.
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