Statistics Canada reported on Oct. 30 that real gross domestic product by industry was essentially unchanged in August, marking the second straight month with a flat reading. The agency’s advance estimate for September was weaker, pointing to a 0.1 per cent decline.
The flat headline hid a divide across sectors. Services-producing industries edged down 0.1 per cent, while goods-producing industries edged up 0.1 per cent. Only nine of 20 industrial sectors expanded.
Retail trade was the clearest bright spot, rising 1.2 per cent in August and more than reversing its July contraction. Statistics Canada said the increase was led by motor vehicle and parts dealers, while food and beverage retailers, general merchandise retailers, and health and personal care retailers also rebounded.
Manufacturing also grew, rising 0.3 per cent for its fifth increase in seven months. Machinery manufacturing advanced 3.8 per cent, and petroleum refineries rose 4.2 per cent as some refineries resumed production after unscheduled maintenance in July. Transportation equipment manufacturing moved in the opposite direction, falling 3.1 per cent as a prolonged summer shutdown at a major auto assembly plant weighed on motor vehicle and parts manufacturing.
Rail transportation added another pocket of strength. The sector grew 3.6 per cent in August, its largest monthly gain since March 2025, with wheat movements by rail contributing the most after record wheat production for the crop year.
The main drags came from wholesale trade and public administration. Wholesale trade fell 1.4 per cent, led by motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories wholesalers. The public sector aggregate, which includes educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration, fell 0.2 per cent for its first decline in six months. Federal government public administration, excluding defence, fell 2.1 per cent as 2026 Census work continued to wind down.
Resource-related industries were mixed. Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction was essentially unchanged overall, but oil and gas extraction fell 1.2 per cent. Mining and quarrying excluding oil and gas rose 4.9 per cent, supported by gains in potash and other metal ore mining.
The September estimate lowers the growth profile
The early September estimate leaves real GDP by industry tracking a 0.3 per cent expansion for the third quarter of 2026. That figure is preliminary.
The advance September estimate carries more uncertainty than official monthly data. Statistics Canada said decreases in manufacturing and in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction were partly offset by increases in utilities and wholesale trade.
The agency also said monthly GDP estimates can be revised as new administrative and survey data are added. In the Oct. 30 release, revisions were made back to January 2025.
RBC Economics said the monthly data through August, combined with the preliminary September decline, left real GDP tracking at roughly 1.3 per cent annualized in the third quarter. RBC said that was below its 1.8 per cent base-case forecast and the Bank of Canada’s 2.0 per cent estimate, while cautioning that monthly industry data and quarterly expenditure-based GDP can diverge.
Why the timing matters
The release landed two days after the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent. In its Oct. 28 statement, the central bank said annualized GDP growth was 3.3 per cent in the second quarter and that recent indicators pointed to about 2 per cent annualized growth in the third quarter.
The new GDP data do not settle the path for interest rates. For inflation-focused policymakers, that mixed growth picture sits beside price pressure that has not fully faded. The Bank of Canada said CPI inflation had been around 3 per cent since April and was expected to rise to about 3.5 per cent by the end of the year, with high energy prices and cost pressures still central to the outlook.
What the release means for business planning
For Canadian businesses, the sector split matters for budgets, hiring, inventory, and sales forecasts. A flat national number can still mean stronger conditions in one customer segment and weaker conditions in another, especially for companies selling into retail, transportation, manufacturing, energy, or public-sector-adjacent markets.
What to watch on Nov. 30
The Nov. 30 release will confirm or revise September GDP by industry, provide the official third-quarter GDP by income and expenditure, and publish an advance estimate for October.
The next report will update September’s result and provide an early indication of whether the weakness continued into October.
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