The United States has moved to remove South Africa and Rwanda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act, with the cutoff intended to take effect on Jan. 1, 2027.
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said on Nov. 2 that President Donald Trump had notified Congress and both governments of his intent to terminate the countries from AGOA after an annual interagency eligibility review. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the review found both governments were engaging in practices inconsistent with the program’s criteria.
How AGOA eligibility became the pressure point
AGOA is a U.S. trade preference program for eligible sub-Saharan African countries. USTR describes it as offering duty-free access to the U.S. market for more than 1,800 products. Eligibility depends on criteria such as progress toward a market-based economy, rule of law, political pluralism, due process, eliminating barriers to U.S. trade and investment, anti-corruption efforts and human rights protection.
Congress extended the trade preference program through Dec. 31, 2028 in September, so the January cutoff would remove two countries from a continuing program rather than end duty-free access across sub-Saharan Africa.
USTR opened the 2027 annual eligibility review in June through a Federal Register notice that requested written comments, testimony and a public hearing. Under U.S. law, the president must give Congress and the affected country at least 60 days’ notice before terminating a beneficiary country’s designation. The Nov. 2 notice lines up with the stated Jan. 1 effective date.
What Washington cited
USTR did not list identical concerns for the two countries. For South Africa, it cited barriers to U.S. trade and investment, corruption, and threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests. For Rwanda, it cited trade and investment barriers, rule of law, political pluralism, internationally recognized worker rights, human rights, and threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests.
The Rwanda portion of the decision arrived days after a separate Treasury action. On Oct. 28, Treasury sanctioned Rwanda’s Ministry of Defence and Zigama Credit and Savings Society, saying they facilitated Rwanda’s support for M23 in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Rwanda’s government had said after earlier U.S. sanctions in March that Washington’s actions were one-sided and misrepresented the conflict. USTR’s AGOA statement did not say the Treasury sanctions alone triggered the eligibility decision.
South Africa says exposure is concentrated
South Africa’s Department of Trade, Industry and Competition acknowledged the 60-day notice and said the impact would differ by sector. It said the government was assessing affected industries and would support companies case by case.
The department also argued the effect should not be treated as a total reset of U.S.-South Africa trade. It said about 89% of South African exports to the U.S. entered under ordinary World Trade Organization most-favoured-nation terms in 2025, while about 10% entered under AGOA, down from 28% in 2024. It put AGOA exports at about US$1.7 billion in 2025, down from US$4 billion in 2024, and said those exports represented about 1% of South Africa’s total global exports.
South Africa’s Parliament took a similar cautious line on Nov. 4. A committee statement warned against presenting potential exposure as confirmed job losses, while identifying citrus-producing communities in the Western Cape and Northern Cape as areas of concern.
Rwanda’s direct U.S. trade exposure is smaller
USTR data show U.S.-Rwanda goods and services trade totaled an estimated US$333.4 million in 2025. Goods imports from Rwanda were US$43.3 million, while U.S. goods exports to Rwanda were US$39.1 million. USTR also says Rwanda’s AGOA apparel benefits have been suspended since July 31, 2018.
By comparison, USTR puts U.S.-South Africa goods and services trade at US$28.8 billion in 2025, with U.S. goods imports from South Africa at US$16.5 billion.
What changes if the cutoff takes effect
Removal from AGOA would not block South African or Rwandan goods from entering the U.S. It would remove preferential tariff treatment for qualifying products, leaving importers to apply ordinary duties and any other applicable trade measures.
The effect is likely to vary by tariff line, origin rules, shipping date, contract terms and whether buyers or sellers absorb duty costs. Rwanda’s trade data point to a smaller direct goods impact, but the decision carries heavier diplomatic and compliance significance because of the sanctions context.
The remaining question is whether diplomacy changes the outcome before Jan. 1, 2027. South Africa has said it will keep engaging with the U.S. during the notice period. USTR has said the administration is working to ensure African partners take the steps needed to meet eligibility criteria, but its Nov. 2 statement did not publish a detailed public checklist for reversal.
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