Back-to-school spending forecasts conflict. Value is the clear signal

Two U.S. back-to-school surveys published days apart point in opposite directions. Deloitte expects planned K-12 spending to hold roughly flat in dollars and fall after inflation. JLL expects the average parent budget to rise 11.7%.

For Canadian businesses, local research offers a more useful planning signal: 85% of parents are looking for deals before choosing a retailer, and only 19% expect to finish their shopping in one trip.

The strongest plan is built for a selective shopper who will compare prices, switch brands, move between online and physical stores, and return more than once before completing the list. Build obvious value into the offer, keep the campaign active through August, and measure margin rather than traffic alone.

The U.S. surveys disagree on spending

Deloitte’s 2026 Back-to-School Survey, conducted from May 22 to 29 among 1,207 U.S. parents of K-12 students, projects a US$30.4 billion market. Parents plan to spend an average of US$557 per child, down US$13 from 2025. Deloitte describes the result as flat year over year, but calculates a 6% decline after inflation.

The mood in that survey is cautious. Fifty-seven percent of respondents expect the economy to worsen during the next six months, the highest share in Deloitte’s survey since 2020. Twenty-four percent are concerned about making upcoming payments.

The pullback also varies by income. Parents earning US$200,000 or more plan to spend 20% less, while the US$100,000-to-US$199,000 group plans to spend 9% less. Lower- and middle-income parents plan to spend more, but most of those expecting an increase cited higher prices as the reason.

JLL’s survey of 1,022 U.S. parents, also conducted in May, produces a different headline. It puts the average planned budget at US$489 per child, up from US$437 in 2025. JLL reports increases across each of its income groups, including a 14% increase among households earning more than US$150,000.

The JLL findings still show pressure beneath the increase. Sixty-four percent of parents say inflation will affect their shopping. The share of the average budget allocated to discretionary purchases fell from about 60% to 56%, its second consecutive annual decline.

These forecasts should not be averaged or treated as competing measurements of the same transaction record. The organizations used separate samples and questionnaires, and their published category breakdowns and prior-year averages are not the same. Their results describe what respondents intended to spend in May, not what retailers have collected at the register.

One survey cannot establish that back-to-school spending across the market is falling. The stronger conclusion is that shoppers are scrutinizing what they buy even when their planned dollar budget rises.

Canadian parents are looking for deals and using stores

Retail Council of Canada and Caddle surveyed 1,398 Canadian parents of K-12 students for their 2026 research. They describe back-to-school as a market worth more than C$4.5 billion in Canada.

The shopping journey is spread across channels and trips. Ninety-nine percent of respondents plan to shop in a store, 85% are seeking deals before selecting a retailer, and only 19% expect to complete the job in one visit.

That combination matters more to a Canadian business than a U.S. spending average. Customers may research online, inspect or collect products in person, wait for a promotion, and return after receiving a school list.

The value signal also appears across both U.S. surveys. Deloitte reports that 71% of parents will switch brands when their preferred brand costs too much, 60% plan to use more affordable retailers, and 51% expect to choose private labels over name brands. JLL found that about two-thirds plan to use sales or coupons, while more than four in 10 plan to buy fewer products.

Price is only one part of value. Deloitte’s most active deal seekers, defined as parents using four or more cost-saving methods, plan to spend 14% more than other respondents. A customer can hunt for savings and still build a larger basket when the retailer makes comparison and list completion easier.

Shopping starts early but spending can land later

The National Retail Federation reported that about one-third of U.S. back-to-school shoppers had started browsing or buying by early June, the highest share since it began asking the question in 2018. More respondents also had a school list by that point than they did a year earlier.

Early activity does not prove that most revenue arrives early. Deloitte expects 48% of planned spending to happen by the end of July, down from 61% in 2025, followed by another 31% in early August. JLL identifies July as its peak month for planned shopping starts. The Canadian finding that only 19% expect a single-trip shop points to repeat visits as lists, promotions and inventory change.

A retailer should treat the season as a sequence rather than a weekend sale. Early creative can help customers plan and compare. Late-July offers can support list completion. August messaging can focus on missing items, replacements, pickup speed and confirmed availability.

Businesses outside school retail can use the same pattern for any deadline-driven season. Research, purchase and completion may happen at different times, so campaign reach is a weak proxy for revenue timing.

Build a value ladder instead of discounting everything

A blanket markdown is easy to copy and hard on margin. Give customers a small number of clear choices instead.

An entry option should complete the basic job at an accessible price. A middle option can offer better durability, convenience or quantity. A premium option needs a specific advantage that justifies the difference, such as a longer warranty, better materials, faster fulfilment or included accessories.

Bundles can also reduce the work of list completion, but only when the combined price and contents are easy to verify. A bundle filled with unnecessary products will feel like a larger bill rather than better value.

Set a margin floor before launching a promotion. Include product cost, payment fees, packaging, fulfilment, returns and extra labour, then decide which items can carry a discount and which need to remain at full price. A competitive pricing analysis can help you compare the complete offer without turning the decision into a race to the lowest sticker price.

Separate essential, replaceable and deferrable purchases

Deloitte expects spending to move away from technology and toward clothing and accessories. Its respondents plan to spend 16% less on technology as some device upgrades are deferred. Clothing and accessories are up 22%, which Deloitte attributes partly to replacing worn items and making selective splurges.

Use that distinction in inventory and promotion planning. Essential items need reliable stock and a clear entry price. Replaceable items benefit from size, fit and exchange information. Deferrable purchases need stronger proof that buying now is better than waiting.

Do not apply a national category forecast blindly to every store. Check your own units sold, stockouts, searches, abandoned carts and customer questions by category. Local school calendars, climate, product mix and customer income can produce a different pattern.

Make list completion easy across channels

A shopper who is comparing several stores should be able to answer basic questions without contacting you: Is the item in stock? What is the final price? Which size or model is right? Does it work with the device or requirement on the list? When can it be collected? What happens if it needs to be exchanged?

Put those answers on product and category pages, then keep store inventory and pickup information current. Use comparison tables only when the differences are meaningful. If a promotion has exclusions, minimums or an expiry date, place those conditions beside the offer.

Deloitte found an association between broader digital-tool use and higher planned spending. Parents using search, social media and generative AI reported an average budget of US$737, compared with US$381 among respondents not using digital tools. The survey does not show that AI caused the larger budget; income, product needs and digital engagement can also influence the result.

The practical opportunity is to make accurate product information easy for people and automated systems to interpret. Our guide to AI in search and product discovery explains how structured, specific content supports that work. Price, availability, specifications, compatibility, delivery, pickup and return terms should agree everywhere they appear.

Measure the season by margin and completion

Revenue alone can make a heavily discounted campaign look healthier than it is. Track gross-margin dollars, units per order, average order value, promotion cost, returns, stockouts, sell-through and the markdown exposure left after the season.

Compare results with the same stage of last year’s season as well as with an ordinary week. A campaign that moves demand forward may look successful in July and weak in August while producing little total growth. A promotion that increases transactions but lowers gross-margin dollars may be buying activity at a loss.

For businesses without a direct back-to-school category, watch for spillover in customer behaviour. Smaller orders, longer comparison cycles, delayed upgrades and heavier coupon use may justify a change in packaging or timing. They do not justify assuming every customer has become price-only.

A seven-day back-to-school check

1. Divide current inventory or offers into essential, replaceable and deferrable groups, then compare each group with last year’s unit and margin performance.
2. Set the lowest acceptable margin for every planned promotion before choosing the discount or bundle.
3. Verify price, availability, specifications, pickup, delivery and return information on the pages receiving campaign traffic.
4. Schedule separate messages for planning, list completion and last-minute needs instead of repeating one sale throughout the season.
5. Build a simple report for gross-margin dollars, order value, units, sell-through, stockouts, returns and promotion cost, then review it at least weekly through August.

Plan for the selective shopper

The 2026 surveys do not support one confident claim about the direction of total U.S. back-to-school spending. They do agree that families are comparing harder, prioritizing necessities and looking for value. Canadian research adds a strong preference for deals, physical-store shopping and multiple visits.

Build the season around those behaviours. Offer a useful entry price, prove why higher-priced options earn the difference, make list completion easy and keep enough margin to make the sale worth winning.

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Tech Help Canada Staff

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